Gas War: Russian Oil Now Under New Embargo

随着俄乌战争的持续，对俄罗斯的制裁变得越来越普遍. 西方国家正在广泛撒网，希望俄罗斯企业的破产会破坏这个国家的稳定，削弱其发动战争的能力. The newest financial offensive is here and it’s a big one. As of December 5th, 欧盟和七国集团(G7)决定限制俄罗斯的石油出口，希望以此减少俄罗斯的出口收入. 

尽管整个情况可以有效地归结为西方寡头试图惩罚经营该国利润丰厚的能源部门的俄罗斯寡头. The G7 ( officially the Group of Seven) is a body of elected officials, unelected bureaucrats, 富有的商业巨头作为政府间的政治论坛行使着实权. It consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States – with the European Union serving as a highly influential, non-enumerated member. 

其中几个国家已经发誓要在2022年初禁止进口俄罗斯石油. The United States did so at the onset of the war, 拜登政府经常将此作为能源价格上涨的主要原因. However, the truth of the matter is that fuel prices had already spiked dramatically in 2021 俄罗斯的禁运对更加依赖进口燃料的欧洲国家产生了更大的影响. Regardless, 战争当然没有帮助生活在地球上任何地方的消费者节省他们的能源账单. 

Meanwhile, oil companies continue reporting record profits. 

这可能是一个更复杂的背景故事，比你习惯的为什么没有足够的石油. 但值得注意的是，围绕乌克兰战争做出的地缘政治决定不能归结为每个人都希望冲突结束. OPEC, which has been broadly aligned with Russian business for years, 在乔·拜登总统要求打开水龙头，希望以此压低全球燃料价格后，该公司削减了产量. 他们和西方石油生产商一样，希望尽可能从每桶石油中赚到最多的钱. 

This latest round of sanctions is supposed to tackle exactly that. 

Starting today, 美国将对俄罗斯石油实行价格上限，旨在使克里姆林宫破产，同时也有助于避免本已昂贵的燃料即将遭受价格冲击. 该倡议旨在将石油价格控制在每桶60美元，并已得到七国集团其他成员国的支持, in addition to the European Union. 

However, the EU has made a few plays of its own, 首先是新的规定，禁止成员国购买大多数形式的俄罗斯原油. The general plan has been in discussions for quite some time, 批评人士说，考虑到已经有很多针对俄罗斯的地区分部，这可能不会有太大的不同. 行业分析人士同样表示，这两项举措可能不会对俄罗斯的战争努力造成致命打击. 

According to The New York Times, 无论如何，没有人真的认为石油供应会立即受到影响——主要是因为能源公司已经开始从美国等地购买更多的石油, Brazil, Guyana, and the Middle East. The U.S. has even been in talks to lift sanctions on the famously troublesome Venezuela to help fill the vacuum left by banning Russian fuels.  

据报道，分析师和交易员也担心，这些价格上限可能几乎无法管理, with the Times finding at least one expert that believed the deal might still work. Though he previously worked for the U.S. 美国国务院领导对俄罗斯实施制裁的计划和实施, so his take is undoubtedly biased. 

“我怀疑达成的妥协给了这项政策成功的最好机会,” said Edward Fishman, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told NYT. 

Ultimately, 整个计划取决于托运人和保险公司拒绝在油价高于每桶60美元限价的地方运输任何货物. As of today, 平均每桶价格略高于80美元，随着我们进入寒冷的月份，价格有望上涨. 这意味着，如果石油生产商未能或拒绝遵守所要求的上限，他们将会放弃业务. But with the global oil market in complete disarray, while also being highly lucrative, there are new black markets popping up everywhere. There are also loads of countries, China and India being the largest, that will happily continue buying from whoever is selling. Those two nations will likewise be the most impacted by this decision, as G7 countries already have embargoes in place that prohibit their buying from Russia. 

At the same time, 俄罗斯表示，它不会遵守任何价格上限，甚至威胁要切断对遵守价格上限安排的国家的供应. We’ve already seen how axing natural gas supplies impacted countries like Germany this year. If Russia did the same with oil, there’s a pretty good chance that the entire market could become totally unmanageable. Though one might argue that that scenario has already come to pass and would only worsen. 

“These measures will undoubtedly have an impact on the stability of the global energy market,” Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, reportedly said on Monday.

七国集团认为，通过采取气候倡议，可以缓解上述制裁带来的一些不利影响. While the plans were being discussed in June, G7 leadership faulted “Russia’s illegal and unjustifiable war of aggression against Ukraine,并誓言将“立即采取行动，确保能源供应，降低由异常市场条件推动的价格飙升。.”

According to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), 随后，该集团承诺“稳定和改变全球经济，同时应对生活成本上涨”，并“重申逐步摆脱对俄罗斯能源依赖的承诺”, without compromising on … climate and environmental goals.” They then pledged to “coordinate on … economic security, strengthen the resilience of supply chains and secure a level-playing field.” 

As with other recent initiatives that are allegedly designed to help tamp down oil prices, I wouldn’t recommend holding your breath until fuel prices drop. There’s a myriad of reasons why the market is in such ragged shape for consumers right now and Russia isn’t the whole story. 其中一些只不过是企业战争和最大化政治影响力. 西方政府似乎也没有为这些针对俄罗斯的制裁制定多少退出策略. Many are asking for regime change or a complete pullout from Ukraine, neither of which appear to be things Russian leadership is interested in. Peace talks in France have repeatedly stalled, 克里姆林宫表示，西方要求的太多了，不能保证北约会保持距离. 

No matter which angle you come at it from, it sounds like the Ukrainian situation is far from resolved. 因为进入明年，世界大部分地区的能源价格都将破纪录, don’t expect to see any cheap gasoline in the months ahead. The deck seems to be stacked against the possibility in every conceivable way, 唯一真正的解脱是那些能够自给自足的国家的公民——考虑到把石油卖给那些迫切需要石油并因此愿意支付更高价格的国家更有商业意义，即使这样也可能是适度的.